Logistic模型的兰州市降雨型黄土滑坡预警研究Early warning research on rainfall loess landslide in Lanzhou city based on logistic model
王兆华,张继贤,杨树文,刘龙龙
摘要(Abstract)：
为了综合考虑降雨与岩性地层实际渗水能力的关系及多种滑坡致灾因子,该文基于logistic回归模型构建了兰州市降雨型黄土滑坡预警模型。该模型首先以坡度、坡向、植被指数、不透水层、不同岩性渗水能力和公路数据为滑坡发生的关键影响因子;其次,选取实验区相关数据并通过SPSS计算得到权值函数;最后,通过logistic回归模型计算滑坡发生的概率,获得不同降雨量下的黄土滑坡风险区划图。模型结果显示,研究区内滑坡发生风险较高的区域随着降雨量的增加而增大,在低降雨量下与公路边坡的稳定性的关系十分密切,在高降雨量下与岩性的渗水能力关系较大,且预警降雨量为30 mm,通过历史发生的滑坡数据进行验证,发生在滑坡概率为中以上的滑坡点占比超过87.1%,验证结果显示该模型的预测精度较高,更满足实际滑坡预测的需求。
关键词(KeyWords)： 滑坡预测;降雨;logistic回归模型;风险区划
基金项目(Foundation): 兰州市人才创新创业项目(2015-RC-28);; 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0504201);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41761082);; 兰州交通大学优秀平台项目(201806)
作者(Author): 王兆华,张继贤,杨树文,刘龙龙
DOI: 10.16251/j.cnki.1009-2307.2020.04.020
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