新冠疫情暴发对城市经济影响的时空差异分析Spatio-temporal difference analysis of the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on urban economy
张校源,王浩,宁晓刚,刘若文
摘要(Abstract):
针对现有疫情研究数据的代表性或开放性不足的问题,该文利用NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据构建灯光影响指数与灯光恢复指数两类指标,对2020年初期全国新冠疫情在不同时空尺度下对城市经济的异质性影响进行实证分析。相关性分析表明,该文构建的夜间灯光指标通过了市级尺度下疫情暴发、下降及平复阶段的相关性分析和显著性检验,能够对城市经济影响及恢复进行准确评估。空间自相关分析表明,南方多数城市经历由低值到高值的聚类过程,与实际疫情背景下城市发展规律相对应;北京、重庆、广州、上海等地经济受影响较大但恢复较好,体现出其良好的恢复力与城市韧性;沈阳、哈尔滨为代表的东北城市缺乏一定的城市活力;疫情对于工业型城市影响较为严重,但以第三产业为主的城市可以实现快速恢复。夜间灯光反映出的空间聚集特征符合全国疫情发展前后城市经济的实际变化情况。研究表明,大区域尺度下利用夜间灯光监测疫情对城市经济影响具有可行性。
关键词(KeyWords): COVID-19;NPP/VIIRS;夜间灯光指标;ESDA
基金项目(Foundation): 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(AR2117);; 自然资源规划及管理项目(A2113)
作者(Author): 张校源,王浩,宁晓刚,刘若文
DOI: 10.16251/j.cnki.1009-2307.2022.04.025
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