盘龙江子流域不透水表面扩张模拟Simulation of impervious surfaces expansion of Panlong River sub-watershed based on agent-based modeling
易俊华,许泉立,杨昆
摘要(Abstract)：
为促进盘龙江子流域的城镇化进程及保护水环境,该文模拟预测了该地区不透水表面的时空格局:通过分析流域不透水表面扩张的影响因子,建立了智能体分类体系及行为与决策规则;构建了流域的不透水表面变化模拟模型,模拟出流域2002—2013年的土地利用变化,并且验证了其模拟精度;在此基础上模拟预测了盘龙江流域2014—2020年间的不透水表面扩张趋势。研究结果表明利用智能体建模方法较为适合模拟滇池流域盘龙江子流域不透水表面的扩张过程。
关键词(KeyWords)： 地理信息系统;智能体模型;盘龙江子流域;不透水表面;模拟模型
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(41461038);; 高等学校博士学科点专项联合基金项目(20115303110002);; 云南省自然科学基金项目(2011XX2005)
作者(Author): 易俊华,许泉立,杨昆
DOI: 10.16251/j.cnki.1009-2307.2016.07.013
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