潘国荣;乔立洋;王穗辉;

• 1:同济大学测绘与地理信息学院

摘要(Abstract)：

滑坡灰色模型的模型误差主要来自降雨量、温度等外界影响因子,传统的半参数灰色模型没有考虑这些对滑坡变形影响较大的外界因子,而把相邻时刻的模型误差当作是不变的,预测精度较低。针对这一问题,该文提出了将这些影响因子当作非参数变量引入模型,通过改进正规矩阵来建立半参数改进灰色模型,可以得到更加准确的模型误差,并且能够将其补偿到观测序列中,使预测结果更加准确。计算结果表明,本文所述模型在观测序列的拟合和预测中均有较好的结果,能够充分地利用在滑坡中采集到的各种信息,并且达到更优的结果。

关键词(KeyWords)： 半参数改进灰色模型;正规矩阵;滑坡变形预测

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 中央高校基本科研业务费专项(20180321)

作者(Authors): 潘国荣;乔立洋;王穗辉;

DOI: 10.16251/j.cnki.1009-2307.2019.09.024

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