叶欣,陈春森,吕利娜,徐兆阳

• 1:哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院
• 2:黑龙江科技大学矿业工程学院
• 3:浙江省第二测绘院
• 4:盘锦宏源土地勘测规划评估有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

为了对鸡西市鸡冠区城市空间格局演化过程进行研究,该文探讨了研究区城市用地时空变化过程,并预测了未来城市用地空间格局在3种不同情景下的潜在动态。以2006、2012和2018年作为研究时期,主要完成了以下工作:(1)对研究区2006—2012、2012—2018年两个发展周期内城市扩张变化状况进行分析,结果表明,城市用地扩张明显,但扩张速度呈现下降趋势,占用耕地和农村居民地是城市扩张的主要方式,且扩张区域的空间布局集中在原有城市用地的周围;(2)采用多准则评价的元胞自动机和马尔科夫链集成MCE-CA-Markov模型进行模拟,Kappa系数和精度分别达到0.817 5和93%;(3)设置自然发展情景、农业资源保护情景和生态环境保护情景约束模型参数,预测出城市用地将持续增长,扩张速度及空间分布由于参数的不同而存在显著差异。

关键词(KeyWords)： 城市扩张;CA模型;情景模拟;鸡西市鸡冠区

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(19JLC116);; 黑龙江省自然科学基金优秀青年项目(YQ2019D006);; 黑龙江省省属高等学校基本科研业务费科研项目(2018-KYYWF-1178,2018-KYYWF-1179)

作者(Author): 叶欣,陈春森,吕利娜,徐兆阳

DOI: 10.16251/j.cnki.1009-2307.2020.10.025

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