闵扬海,王潜心,丛丽娟

• 1:中国矿业大学国土环境与灾害监测国家测绘地理信息局重点实验室
• 2:中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院

摘要(Abstract)：

针对钟差预报中灰色神经网络模型种类较多、性质和适用范围尚未具体分析的问题,根据其预报特点,该文提出了一种基于灰色神经网络的自适应钟差预报策略。基于MGEX精密钟差数据进行预报实验,采用不同建模钟差数据量进行相同时间段钟差预报,对3种不同的灰色神经网络模型钟差预报效果进行对比,总结了几种预报模型的性质与适用范围。该文提出的自适应预报策略较好地平衡了几种灰色神经网络模型的特点,提升了钟差预报效果。基于该文策略的实验结果表明:所提策略能够有效利用不同灰色神经网络模型特点,提高钟差预报精度。在1d预报中,该策略较本文提及的其他可靠方法精度提升1%～3%;6h预报中,该策略较较灰色模型等精度提高0.02～0.09ns。

关键词(KeyWords)： 灰色模型;神经网络;钟差预报;预报模型对比;自适应

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家科技基础性专项(2015FY310200);; 国家自然科学基金重点项目(41730109);国家自然科学基金项目(41404033)

作者(Author): 闵扬海,王潜心,丛丽娟

DOI: 10.16251/j.cnki.1009-2307.2019.08.027

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