张红华,万鲁河,郝景莹

• 1:哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院
• 2:寒区地理环境监测与空间信息服务黑龙江省重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

针对小兴安岭湿地生态功能退化,急须对其景观格局动态演变特征进行分析,该文提出了耦合人工神经网络、元胞自动机和马尔科夫链构建模型来预测小兴安岭湿地未来景观格局的方法;通过转移矩阵、景观格局指数分析小兴安岭湿地1995—2025年景观格局动态演变特征。结果表明:所构建模型耦合了马尔科夫链数量预测与元胞自动机空间预测的优势,能够较大限度地克服元胞自动机模型主观赋权的影响,有效地提高了预测模型的精度;1995—2025年,小兴安岭地区湿地面积呈波动式变化,1995—2005年湿地面积急剧减少,2005年后缓慢增加,至2025年趋于平稳;小兴安岭湿地景观格局总体趋于破碎化,景观异质性增加,2005年达到最大值,2015年后各景观类型比例基本稳定。研究结果为小兴安岭湿地生态功能修复提供有力的技术支撑。

关键词(KeyWords)： 小兴安岭;湿地景观格局;模拟;动态演变

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(41671100)

作者(Author): 张红华,万鲁河,郝景莹

DOI: 10.16251/j.cnki.1009-2307.2021.08.027

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