柴炳阳,白登辉,郑鹏民,李嫣,王中元

• 1:河南测绘职业学院
• 2:中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院
• 3:苏州工业园区测绘地理信息有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

为了探索在冲击矿压空间预警过程中,使用不同的插值方法对预警云图精度的影响,从而找出精度高的插值方法予以应用。该文分别使用了基于地统计分析的克里金插值、确定性插值方法中的反距离权重插值和径向基函数插值,对古城煤矿的冲击矿压空间预警云图进行预测并交叉验证,并以均方根误差作为衡量标准。结果表明:从冲击矿压空间预警云图效果来看,基于地统计分析的克里金插值与另外两种插值方法生成的空间预警云图相比,内容表达更丰富、区域特征体现更确切;从预测值与测量值的回归图像来看,克里金插值的回归直线同标准线基本重合,优于另外两种插值方法;从均方根误差的折线图可以看出,使用克里金插值生成的空间预警云图的精度比反距离权重插值法和径向基函数插值法分别提高18%、25%左右。

关键词(KeyWords)： 冲击矿压;空间预警;地统计分析;克里金插值;交叉验证

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20181361);; 中国矿业大学研究生教育教学改革研究与实践项目(2017Y02)

作者(Author): 柴炳阳,白登辉,郑鹏民,李嫣,王中元

DOI: 10.16251/j.cnki.1009-2307.2020.08.025

参考文献(References)：

• [1] 姜耀东,潘一山,姜福兴,等.我国煤炭开采中的冲击地压机理和防治[J].煤炭学报,2014,39(2):205-213.(JIANG Yaodong,PAN Yishan,JIANG Fuxing,et al.State of the art review on mechanism and prevention of coal bumps in China[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2014,39(2):205-213.)
• [2] 姜耀东.煤岩冲击失稳的机理和实验研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.(JIANG Yaodong.Investigation on the mechanism of coal bumps and relating experiments[M].Beijing:Science Press,2009.)
• [3] 李铁,蔡美峰,王金安,等.深部开采冲击地压与瓦斯的相关性探讨[J].煤炭学报,2005,30(5):562-567.(LI Tie,CAI Meifeng,WANG Jin’an,et al.Discussion on relativity between rockburst and gas in deep exploitatio[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2005,30(5):562-567.)
• [4] COOK N G W.A note on rockbursts considered as a problem of stability[J].Journal of South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy,1965,65:437-445.
• [5] HUDSON J A,CROUCH S L,FAIRHURST C.Soft stiff and servo-controlled testing machines:a review with reference to rock failure[J].Engineering Geology,1972,6(3):155-189.
• [6] 章梦涛,徐曾和,潘一山,等.冲击地压和突出的统一失稳理论[J].煤炭学报,1991,16(4):48-53.(ZHANG Mengtao,XU Zenghe,PAN Yishan,et al.A united instability theory on coal(rock)burst and outburst[J].Journal of China Coal Society,1991,16(4):48-53.)
• [7] XIE H P,PARISEAU W G.Fractal character and mechanism of rock burst[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts,1993,30(4):343-350.
• [8] VARDOULAKIS I.Rock bursting as a surface instability phenomenon[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts,1984,21(3):137-144.
• [9] DYSKIN A V,GERMANOVICH L N.Model of rockburst caused by crack growing near free surface[C]//Rockbursts and Seismicity in Mines.Roterdam:Balkema,1993:169-174.
• [10] 张晓春,缪协兴,杨挺青.冲击矿压的层裂板模型及试验研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1999,18(5):497-502.(ZHANG Xiaochun,MIAO Xiexing,YANG Tingqing.The layer-crack-plate model and testing study of the rockburst in mines[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,1999,18(5):497-502.)
• [11] LINKQV A M.Rockbursts and the instability of rock masses[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts,1996,33(7):727-732.
• [12] 韩荣军,任勇,王元杰.冲击矿压的微震预测预报技术及工程应用[J].煤矿开采,2009,14(4):81-83.(HAN Rongjun,REN Yong,WANG Yuanjie.Technology of micro-seismic monitoring for rockburst forecast and engineering application[J].Coal Mining Technology,2009,14(4):81-83.)
• [13] WANG H L,GE M C.Acoustic emission/microseismic source location analysis for a limestone mine exhibiting high horizontal stresses[J].Int J Rock Mech Min Sci,2008,45:720-728.
• [14] GE M C.Efficient mine microseismic monitoring[J].Int J Coal Geol,2005,64:44-56.
• [15] TRIFU C I,SHUMILA V.Microseismic monitoring of a controlled collapse in Field II at Ocnele Mari,Romania[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2010,16:27-42.
• [16] HIRATA A,KAMEOKA Y,HIRANO T.Safety management based on detection of possible rock bursts by AE monitoring during tunnel excavation[J].Rock Mech Rock Eng,2007,40:563-576.
• [17] BARIA R,MICHELET S,BAUMGARTNER J.Creation and mapping of 5 000 m deep HDR/HFR reservoir to produce electricity[C]//Proceeding of the World Geothermal Congress 2005.Antalya,Turkey:[s.n.],2005.
• [18] TEZUKA K,NIITSUMA H.Stress estimated using microseismic clusters and its relationship to the fracture system of the Hijiori hot dry rock reservoir[J].Eng Geol,2000,56:47-62.
• [19] 姜福兴,杨淑华,成云海,等.煤矿冲击地压的微地震监测研究[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(5):1511-1516.(JIANG Fuxing,YANG Shuhua,CHENG Yunhai,et al.A study on microseismic monitoring of rock burst in coal mine[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2006,49(5):1511-1516.)
• [20] 潘一山,赵扬锋,管福海,等.矿震监测定位系统的研究及应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(5):1002-1011.(PAN Yishan,ZHAO Yangfeng,GUAN Fuhai,et al.Study on rouckburst monitoring and orientation system and its application[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(5):1002-1011.)
• [21] 窦林名,何江,巩思园,等.采空区突水动力灾害的微震监测案例研究[J].中国矿业大学学报,2012,41(1):20-25.(DOU Linming,HE Jiang,GONG Siyuan,et al.A case study of micro-seismic monitoring:goaf water-inrush dynamic hazards[J].Journal of China University of Mining & Technology,2012,41(1):20-25.)
• [22] 何鹏,蹇东南,李晓,等.复杂地形影响下四川省逐月气温空间插值方法研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2019,35(6):801-808.(HE Peng,JIAN Dongnan,LI Xiao,et al.Study on interpolation model of monthly temperature in Sichuan province under the influence of complex topography[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2019,35(6):801-808.)
• [23] 汤国安,杨昕.ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].2版.北京:科学出版社,2012:419-425.(TANG Guo’an,YANG Xin.ArcGIS geographic information system space analysis experiment tutorial[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Science Press,2012:419-425.)
• [24] 廖世芳,叶满珠,陈玲霞.基于GIS的煤层厚度数据插值研究[J].价值工程,2018,37(16):234-236.(LIAO Shifang,YE Manzhu,CHEN Lingxia.Research on data interpolation of coal seam thickness based on GIS[J].Value Engineering,2018,37(16):234-236.)
• [25] 袁亚运,蒋中明.基于区域化变量理论的坝基渗流数值方法研究[J].吉林水利,2016(6):28-32.(YUAN Yayun,JIANG Zhongming.Research on the numerical simulation method of seepage analysis of the base of dam based on regionalized variable theory[J].Jilin Water Resources,2016(6):28-32.)
• [26] 陈道贵,胡乃联,李国清.区域化变量非正态分布的稳健性[J].北京科技大学学报,2009,31(4):412-417.(CHEN Daogui,HU Nailian,LI Guoqing.Stationarity for the non-normal distribution of regionalized variables[J].Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing,2009,31(4):412-417.)
• [27] 杨慧.空间分析与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2013:152-157.(YANG Hui.Spatial analysis and modeling[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2013:152-157.)
• [28] 方明礼,肖明.三维初始地应力场反分析的变差函数法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2015,34(8):1594-1601.(FANG Mingli,XIAO Ming.Back analysis of 3D initial geostress field based on variogram function[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2015,34(8):1594-1601.)
• [29] WANG Jinman,ZHANG Jiarui,FENG Yu.Characterizing the spatial variability of soil particle size distribution in an underground coal mining area:an approach combining multi-fractal theory and geostatistics[J].Catena,2019,176:94-103.
• [30]董喆.基于地统计学变异函数理论的HMA压实均匀性影响分析[J].交通科技,2015(4):47-50.(DONG Zhe.Analysis of the effect of HMA compaction uniformity based on the theory of ground statistics variability[J].Transportation Science&Technology,2015(4):47-50.)
• [31]王勇标.克里金算法的改进[D].武汉:长江大学,2012:9-21.(WANG Yongbiao.The Improvement of Kriging Algorithm[D].Wuhan:Yangtze University,2012:9-21.)
• [32]李俊晓,李朝奎,殷智慧.基于ArcGIS的克里金插值方法及其应用[J].测绘通报,2013(9):87-90,97.(LI Junxiao,LI Chaokui,YIN Zhihui. ArcGIS based Kriging interpolation method and its application[J].Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping,2013(9):87-90,97.)
• [33]刘洪.克里金插值算法在形变监测中的应用[J].地理空间信息,2018,16(4):91-93,11.(LIU Hong.Application of Kriging in deformation monitoring[J].Geospatial Information,2018,16(4):91-93,11.)
• [34]张海荣.地理信息系统原理与应用[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2008:142-149.(ZHANG Hairong.The principles and applications of geographic information system[M].Xuzhou:China University of Mining&Technology Press,2008:142-149.)